What to Expect in the Spring 2026 Real Estate Market in Southern Ontario Spring is traditionally the busiest season in real estate, and many buyers and sellers are wondering what the 2026 spring market will bring across Southern Ontario. After a period of market correction and shifting economic conditions, this year’s spring market is shaping up to be more strategic and opportunity-driven than the frenzied markets we saw during the pandemic years. Here’s what buyers and sellers should expect this spring. A More Balanced Market That May Tilt in Favour of Buyers The Southern Ontario housing market spent much of the past two to three years adjusting after the pandemic boom. Prices have come well off the peak in early 2022 with stabilization in many areas, but there’s still the possibility of further downward price pressure as spring inventory comes online. The market has shifted away from extreme seller dominance toward more balanced conditions while conditions in some communities are favouring buyers. Today’s market environment gives buyers more time to make decisions while still allowing sellers to achieve strong results if their homes are priced correctly and well presented. What this means: Buyers have more negotiating power Sellers must focus on realistic pricing and strong presentation Overpriced homes will sit longer on the market Well-priced properties can still attract strong interest, but the days of dozens of unconditional offers have largely passed. More Listings Are Expected to Hit the Market Spring always brings a surge of new listings, and 2026 is expected to follow that pattern. Some homeowners who delayed selling during uncertain market conditions may finally list their homes this spring, which is likely to increase inventory across many Southern Ontario markets. However, as many buyers take a cautious approach to their next steps factoring in a variety of concerns including tariffs, interest rates, inflation, global conflicts, and more, it’s possible that new inventory outpaces demand from buyers. In this scenario, we would expect to see softening prices and longer days on market. For buyers, this means: More choice and variety Less pressure to rush decisions Opportunities to negotiate on price or conditions For sellers, increased inventory means that standing out in the market will be crucial and realistic expectations are an absolute must. Interest Rates – The Ever-Present Concern Interest rates remain one of the biggest factors influencing housing demand. Many economists went into 2026 expecting the Bank of Canada to keep its key interest rate relatively stable this year provided inflation stays within target ranges. However, rising oil prices over the last couple weeks are already having an impact on the bond market, which have resulted in slight increases to fixed mortgage rates. If oil prices and the price at the gas pump remain higher, inflation could start increasing again, which would increase the likelihood of a higher overnight lending rate from the Bank of Canada. This would translate to higher interest rates on variable rate mortgages. But, should interest rates remain stable, buyer confidence could improve after the last couple tumultuous years, resulting in a gradual return of buyers. Given improved pricing and less competition, opportunities are certainly out there for buyers. The key for many buyers, though, is feeling comfortable with the interest rate environment. Lower Prices Than the Pandemic Years Rather than dramatic price increases or drops, most forecasts going into 2026 had suggested modest price improvement in 2026. The underlying assumption had been that we would see more stable economic conditions this year, particularly around interest rates. The conflict in Iran, though, may alter that expectation if rising oil prices result in higher inflation leading to higher interest rates. While that isn’t necessarily a certainty, it’s likely we won’t see much in the way of price gains. Instead, we may simply see a degree of balance or even further price decreases in areas where high inventory forces sellers to be more competitive in their pricing. In other words: There is the potential that prices could continue to soften A stable market would likely be the optimal outcome for 2026, and expectations of price growth should be muted Opportunities for Buyers Despite what may still feel like challenging times, the current market is creating more opportunities for buyers, especially first-time buyers. With greatly improved pricing, this may be the best opportunity in several years. Southern Ontario entered 2026 with improved affordability and lower pricing, creating a window of opportunity for strategic buyers. That said, desirable homes – especially those that are well presented, offer ideal locations, and in popular price ranges – can still sell quickly. Compared with the peak pandemic market: Prices are more realistic and notably lower over the last three years Inventory is higher providing much more choice Competition with other buyers is considerably lower Sellers Need a Strategic Approach While sellers can still achieve excellent results, success in today’s market requires strategy. Key factors for selling this spring include: A strategic listing plan with insightful guidance Accurate pricing based on current comparables Professional marketing and staging Flexible negotiation and realistic expectations Homes that are properly prepared and priced continue to sell, while unrealistic listings will sit longer and require price adjustments. The Bottom Line For both buyers and sellers, success this spring will come down to strategy, timing, and understanding the local market conditions. GET IN TOUCH As your trusted resource for all things real estate, we would be more than happy to provide you with additional insight on how to best prepare for buying or selling real estate. If you have any questions about the market, please reach out anytime. Want a better real estate experience? Call the Giles Team, we are always happy to help. NOT RECEIVING OUR NEWSLETTER? Send us an email so we can add your name and address to our monthly mailout. We look forward to connecting DK and Amanda

What to Expect in Ontario's Housing Market in 2026 As we settle into 2026, Ontario’s housing market continues to evolve in response to changing economic conditions, shifting buyer behaviour, and broader national trends. After several years of rapid price growth that reached a fevered pitch through the COVID-19 pandemic, we have experienced a period of cooling with many homeowners, buyers, and investors asking: What’s next? Here’s a look at what to expect in Ontario’s real estate landscape this year. Market Conditions: Balanced but Still Soft After a slowdown in 2025 that was characterized by price declines, elevated inventory, and subdued sales, the Ontario market is shifting toward a more balanced environment where neither buyers nor sellers hold overwhelming advantage. Inventory levels are likely to remain elevated, giving buyers more choices and reducing urgency to make offers quickly. But, sales activity may increase modestly in 2026, reflecting improved affordability thanks to lower prices and improved interest rates. This means we’re likely to continue seeing fewer bidding wars and fewer “above ask” offers compared with the frenzied market of 3-5 years ago. Price Trends: Modest Changes Ahead Of course, no one has a crystal ball, but unlike the sharp gains of the past decade, price movements in 2026 are expected to be moderate and regionally varied: Toronto Area Experts forecast slightly lower average prices in many core markets – particularly the GTA – with some projections from Re/Max Canada and Royal LePage suggesting a modest decline of around 3-5% year-over-year. Broader Ontario Other regions – especially smaller cities and some larger communities such as Hamilton, Burlington, and Oakville – may see stable to slightly positive price performance. Re/Max Canada is projecting up to 3% growth in average price for Hamilton and Burlington, while gains may be more muted in Oakville. Generally, mild gains could be experienced as demand shifts out to communities with greater affordability. The result? A market where some areas grow slowly, some hold steady, and others adjust downward slightly – reinforcing the idea that Ontario is not a single market but a collection of markets. That spectrum from one community to another isn’t likely to be broad, ranging from minor price dips to small price gains. Why This Is Happening Interest Rates & Borrowing Mortgage rates have been more stable following reductions by the Bank of Canada, which may encourage buyers who were previously sidelined by high borrowing costs. Stable or lower rates make monthly payments more manageable and could help draw buyers back into the market. Lower Prices As prices have come a fair bit over the last 2-3 years, combined with the aforementioned lower borrowing costs, some buyers will find attractive opportunities to secure ideal properties at more reasonable prices. Population & Immigration Trends Canada’s long-term immigration targets continue to support housing demand, especially in urban-adjacent regions like the Greater Golden Horseshoe, although population growth is now slower than we saw just a few years ago when prices were rising more significantly. Changing Buyer Preferences More buyers are turning to suburban and smaller city markets seeking affordability and space. This trend benefits areas outside Toronto, such as Hamilton, where prices are relatively lower and housing supply is expanding. Key Opportunities in 2026 Whether you’re buying or selling, 2026 presents distinct opportunities depending on your goals: For Buyers More negotiating power: With inventory higher than in past years, buyers can take time to compare options and negotiate terms. First-time buyers may find opportunities in suburban and secondary markets where prices are more affordable. Stable interest rates make budgeting and planning easier. For Sellers Sellers in high-demand pockets – particularly in mid-sized cities and well-located urban neighborhoods – may still find strong buyer interest. Pricing your home realistically is key: overpricing in a balanced market can lead to much longer days on market and, ultimately, more price reductions. For Investors Rental demand in key Ontario markets remains healthy, though rental price growth has softened in some areas. Properties in transit-connected, high-employment areas, and near universities, remain more resilient. What To Keep An Eye On The geo-political landscape has been changing rapidly throughout 2025 and this is likely to continue over the next few years. The effects of tariffs, international trade deals, territorial disputes, and more can and will have effects on many industries ranging from energy to agriculture, automotive to pharmaceuticals, tourism to housing, and just about everything else. Sometimes the effects can be positive and create opportunity, but it’s no secret that often there are serious negative impacts felt by many Canadians. Where and when there’s concern, consumer confidence is often eroded, especially if employment is at risk. Consumer confidence is surely going to play a role in whether or not some buyers choose to stay on the sidelines in 2026. Final Takeaway Ontario’s 2026 housing market is not going to be a repeat of the boom years, but it’s not likely to collapse either. Instead, we expect to see a maturing, more balanced market where economic fundamentals, buyer preferences, and demographic trends guide activity. Prices are adjusting, inventory remains elevated, and buyers have more room to negotiate – while sellers can still succeed with smart pricing and timing. Whether you’re considering selling, buying, or investing, understanding local market nuance is critical. 2026 will be a year where strategy matters more than ever before. GET IN TOUCH As your trusted resource for all things real estate, we would be more than happy to provide you with additional insight on how to best prepare for buying or selling real estate. If you have any questions about the market, please reach out anytime. Want a better real estate experience? Call the Giles Team, we are always happy to help. NOT RECEIVING OUR NEWSLETTER? Send us an email so we can add your name and address to our monthly mailout. We look forward to connecting DK and Amanda